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MAFF UPDATE No.714 (Published on MARCH 7, 2009)

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Number 714
MARCH 7, 2009

A weekly update of news from the Japanese
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
International Policy Planning Division, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Kasumigaseki 1-2-1, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8950
Fax: 81-3-5512-7652
Contact MAFF
Editor: Yoshiyuki Ohtani

The impact of growing demand for agricultural products as raw materials for biofuel on international prices of agricultural products

Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Policy Research Institute) has econometrically analyzed the impact of growing demand for agricultural products as raw materials for biofuel on international prices of agricultural products, as part of project research on global food supply and demand that started in 2008. Here, we would like to show a summary of the analysis.

Further details are provided in the website of Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.
http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff (Japanese)

With the aim to measure econometrically the impact of the U.S. bio-ethanol program on corn market as raw material, this study developed the projection model of world corn supply and demand and estimated the impact of growing demand for bio-ethanol on corn prices.

This study compared the price projection (baseline projection) from 2006* through 2017, based on a series of assumptions such as continuation of the current agriculture and bio-ethanol programs, with that (scenario projection) from 2007 through 2017, based on an assumption that the U.S. would not produce bio-ethanol. The results of this study indicate that international corn prices would have decreased by 22.2% in 2007 and would decrease by 36.9% in 2017.

Thus, the growing demand for biofuel impacted 22.2% of the total increase in international corn prices in 2007.

This result was on approximately the same level as that of the impact estimation, 20%, by IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) ** in 2007.
  

*   The years described in this article indicate crop years.

** International Food Policy Research Institute is an international food and agricultural policy research organization funded by FAO, etc. and valued for its neutrality by many experts around the world.

 

Estimation of the impact of growing demand for bio-ethanol in the U.S. on international corn prices

STATISTICS

The following statistics are available from the Statistics Planning Division of the Statistics Department (Tel. 03-6744-2037).
 

  1. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, Last 10 days of January 2009.
  2. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy,2007.(Statistics on type of Agricultural Management by Organized Management)
  3. Planted Area and Production of Sweet Potatoes, 2008.
  4. Survey on Marine Fishery Production, July - December 2008.
  5. Statistics on Distribution of Frozen Fishery Products, December 2008.
  6. Statistical Survey on Forestry Households Economy,2007.(Balance of Forestry Management)
  7. Statistical Survey on Forestry Households Economy,2007.(Management and Economy Balance of Cultivated Mushrooms)
  8. Production of Soybeans, Azuki Red beans, Kidneans and Peanuts 2008(Dried Beans).
  9. Prices of Lumber, February 2009.

Notes: 1. All materials are in Japanese unless otherwise noted.
             2. Contacts may not be able to respond to inquiries in any language except Japanese.
 

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International Policy Planning Division
International Affairs Department
TEL: +81-3-3591-9681   FAX: +81-3-5512-7652

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