MAFF UPDATE No.727 (Published on February 26, 2010)

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Number 727
February 26, 2010
A weekly update of news from the Japanese
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
International Policy Planning Division, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Kasumigaseki 1-2-1, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8950
Fax: 81-3-5512-7652
Contact MAFF
Editor: Takao Sato

World Food Supply and Demand Projections to 2019 -World Food Supply and Demand Model projection Results-

Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Policy Research Institute, MAFF) has conducted the prospective analysis of The World Food Supply and Demand Projections to 2019 from a quantitative standpoint, using the world food supply and demand model developed as the project study of the world food supply and demand since 2008. The following is the result.

1. What are the ”World Food Supply and Demand Projections”?

The World Food Supply and Demand projections are focused on the world food supply and demand in the next decade from a quantitative standpoint, using the analysis model based on the world economic prediction.

MAFF has released the World Food Supply and Demand projections five times and from last year, we decided to release the projections annually based on the world food supply and demand model developed by Policy Research Institute, MAFF of Japan.

2. Projection results

Although the global economy experienced a temporary stagnation from 2008 in the wake of the financial crisis, economies in emerging and developing countries are expected to continue growing highly. From the medium‐term perspectives, meanwhile, the world’s food supply and demand will likely remain tight, since crop demands not only for food and feed use but for biofuel use increase in the world primarily in Asia and emerging countries due to the population and income growth, resulting in low ending stock levels of crops and other agricultural commodities. Food prices are thus likely to exceed those before 2007 levels and increase further.

(1) The consumption of crop will reach 2.6 billion tons by 2019, increasing by approximately 500 million tons for 12 years. The consumption of wheat and rice will increase due to mainly the increasing food use while the consumption of maize will increase due to the increasing feed use and feedstock for bio-ethanol

(2) The production of each item cannot catch up with the increasing consumption. The ratio of ending stock will fall.

(3) The crop price raise by 31~46% in nominal price and by 6~17% in real price compared to 2007.

(4) The tendency of uneven distribution in crop trading keeps expanding.

1, In Asia, Africa and Middle East, the production of crops cannot catch up with the increasing consumption. Therefore, net import increases.

2, Europe, South America and Oceania will increase net export and respond to increasing net import.

3, North America keeps decreasing net export. In Latin America, net import area will transform itself into net export area.

(5) The consumption of meat will increase due to the increasing annual consumption per capita. The price seems to rise by 41~42% in nominal price and by 7~12% in real price.

STATISTICS

The following statistics are available from the Statistics Planning Division of the Statistics Department (Tel. 03-6744-2037).

1. Index Numbers of Commodity Prices in Agriculture, August 2009.
2. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, First 10 days of October 2009.
3. Statistics on Cultivated Land Area, (as of July 15, 2009)
4. Production Survey on First Tea, 2009 (Main Producing Prefectures).
5. Planted Area of Fruits and Tea, as of July 15, 2009.
6. Statistics on Lumber, September 2009.
7. Statistics on Plywood, September 2009.
8. Statistics on Milk and Milk Products, September 2009.
9. Statistics on Meat Marketing, September 2009.
10. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, Middle 10 days of October 2009.
11. Statistics on Marketing of Fisheries Products in Consuming Areas, August 2009.
12. Index Numbers of Commodity Prices in Agriculture, September 2009.
13.Statistics on Chicks Hatched, September 2009
14. Monthly Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, September 2009.
15. Statistics on Marketing of Fisheries Products in Consuming Areas, September 2009.
16. Report of Survey on Trend of Price and Sales of Perishable Food, July - September 2009.
17. Planted Area of Soybeans, 2009.
18. Planted Area and Production of Wheat and Barley (Except Hokkaido), 2009.
19. Planted Area and Production of Rush, and Production of Tatami Facing,2009.(Main Producing Prefectures)
20.Prices of Lumber, October 2009.(Preliminary)
21. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, Last 10 days of October 2009.
22. Statistics on Distribution of Frozen Fishery Products, September 2009.
23. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy, 2008. (Statistics on Production Cost of Rice)
24. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, First 10 days of November 2009.
25. Statistics on Lumber, October 2009.
26. Statistics on Plywood, October 2009.
27. Statistics on Milk and Milk Products, October 2009.
28. Production and Shipment of Laquat Cherries and Mume Apricots, 2009.
29. Statistics on Meat Marketing, October 2009.
30. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, Middle 10 days of November 2009.
31. Production of Wheat and Barley, 2009.
32. Index Numbers of Commodity Prices in Agriculture, October 2009.
33. Statistics on Chicks Hatched, October 2009.
34. Monthly Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, October 2009.
35. Statistics on Marketing of Fisheries Products in Consuming Areas, October 2009.
36. Prices of Lumber, November 2009. (Preliminary)
37. Aggregate of Planted Area of Crops and Utilization Rate of Cultivated Land, 2008.
38. Production of Paddy Field Rice and Upland Rice, 2009.
39. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, Last 10 days of November 2009.
40. Planted Area, Production and Shipment of spring Planted Potatoes (Except Hokkaido), 2009.
41. Statistics on Distribution of Frozen Fishery Products, October 2009.
42. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, First 10 days of December 2009.
43. Summary the Census of Fisheries, 2008.
44. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy, 2008 (Statistics on Production Cost of Milk)
45. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy, 2008 (Statistics on Production Cost of Calves, Fattening Castrated Young Cattle, Rearing Dairy Cattle, Fattening Dairy Cattle, Raising Hybrid (Crossbred) Cattle, Fattening Hybrid (Crossbred))
46. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy, 2008 (Statistics on Production Cost of Fattening Pigs)
47. Emergency Survey on Crop Damage, July-October, 2009.
48. Statistical Survey on Fishery Management, 2008.
49. Statistical Survey on Forestry Households Economy, 2008. (Balance of Forestry Management)
50. Statistical Survey on Forestry Households Economy, 2008. (Management and Economy Balance of Cultivated Mushrooms)
51. Statistics on Lumber, November 2009.
52. Statistics on Plywood, November 2009.
53. Statistics on Chicks Hatched, November 2009.
54. Statistics on Milk and Milk Products, November 2009.
55. Statistics on Meat Marketing, November 2009.
56. Index Numbers of Commodity Prices in Agriculture, November 2009.
57. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, Middle 10 days of December 2009.
58. Monthly Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, November 2009.
59. Statistics on Marketing of Fisheries Products in Consuming Areas, November 2009.
60. Prices of Lumber, December 2009. (Preliminary)
61. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, Last 10 days of December 2009.
62. Statistics on Distribution of Frozen Fishery Products, November 2009.
63. Agricultural Output,2008 (Preliminary)
64. Agricultural Output,2008 (Agricultural Region and Prefecture)
65. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, First 10 days of January 2010.
66. Statistics on Lumber, December 2009.
67. Statistics on Plywood, December 2009.
68. Statistics on Meat Marketing, December 2009.
69. Statistics on Milk and Milk Products, December 2009.
70. Fruiting Area, Production and Shipment of Peaches and Plums, 2009.
71. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, Middle 10 days of January 2010.
72. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy,2008 (Management Statistics by Farming Type, Individual (Paddy Field Farm) )
73. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy,2008 (Management Statistics by Farming Type, Individual (Upland Field Farm) )
74. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy,2008 (Management Statistics by Farming Type, Individual (Farm of Vegetables, Fruits and Flowers Farm) )
75. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy,2008 (Management Statistics by Farming Type, Individual (Farm of Dairy Cattle, Beef Cattle, Pigs, Layers and Broilers) )
76. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy, Balance of Farm Management and Economy for Commercial Farm Households(Individual management),2008
77. Statistics on Chicks Hatched, December 2009.
78. Index Numbers of Commodity Prices in Agriculture, December 2009.
79. Monthly Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, December 2009.
80. Statistics on Marketing of Fisheries Products in Consuming Areas, December 2009.
81. Report of Survey on Trend of Price and Sales of Perishable Food, October - December 2009.
82. Forestry Output, 2008.
83. Production of Feed Crops, 2009.
84. Planted Area and Production of Buckwheat, 2009.
85. Planted Area and Production of Sugar Beets, 2009.
86. Prices of Lumber, January 2010. (Preliminary)
87. Planted Area and Production of Sweet Potatoes, 2009.
88. Planted Area, Production and Shipment of spring Planted Potatoes, 2009.
89. Survey on Marine Fishery Production, July - September 2009.
90. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, Last 10 days of January 2010.
91. Statistics on Distribution of Frozen Fishery Products, December 2009.
92. Fruiting Area, Production and Shipment of Japanese Pears and Grapes, 2009.
93. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, First 10 days of February 2010.
94. Statistics on Hen Eggs Marketing, July-December 2009.
95. Production Survey on Tea, 2009.
96. Production of Paddy Field Rice and Upland Rice, 2009.
97. Statistics on Lumber, January 2010.
98. Statistics on Plywood, January 2010.
99. Statistics on Milk and Milk Products, January 2010.
100. Periodical Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, Middle 10 days of February 2010.
101. Monthly Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, January 2009.
102. Statistics on Meat Marketing, January 2009.

Notes: 1. All the materials are in Japanese unless otherwise noted.
2. Contacts may not be able to respond to inquiries in any language except Japanese.

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