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MAFF UPDATE No.735 (Published on March 4th, 2011)

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World Food Supply and Demand Projections to 2020 World Food Supply and Demand Model projection Results  

Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Policy Research Institute, MAFF) has conducted the prospective analysis of The World Food Supply and Demand Projections to 2020 from a quantitative standpoint, using the world food supply and demand model developed as the project study of the world food supply and demand since 2008.

The following is the result.

 

1. What are “The World Food Supply and Demand Projections”?

The World Food Supply and Demand projections are focused on the world food supply and demand in the next decade from a quantitative standpoint, using the analysis model based on the world economic prediction.

As a part of its project study for the World Food Supply and Demand, MAFF has released the projections annually since 2008 based on the world food supply and demand model developed

by Policy Research Institute, MAFF of Japan.

 

2. Projection results

After a stagnation of the global economy caused by the world financial crisis, economy is now recovering, however still unreliable, while vulnerability of growth is seen featuring in the advanced countries,

the emerging and developing countries are expected to continue growing highly and leading the world economy. From the medium-term perspectives, meanwhile, the world’s food supply and demand

will likely remain tight, since crop demands not only for food and feed use but for bio-fuel use increase in the world primarily in Asia and emerging countries due to the population and income growth,

resulting in low ending stock levels of crops and other agricultural commodities. Food prices are thus likely to exceed those before 2007 levels and increase further.

 

  (1) The consumption of crop will reach 2.7billion tons by 2020,increasing by 500million tons for 12years.  The consumption of wheat and rice will increase due to mainly the increasing food use while the consumption of maize will increase due to the increasing feed use and feedstock for bio-ethanol.

  (2) The production of each item cannot catch up with the increasing consumption. The amount (ratio) of ending stock will fall.

  (3) The crop price will rise by 24~35% in nominal price and by 3~14% in real price compared to 2008.

  (4) The tendency of uneven distribution in crop trading keeps expanding

1) In Asia, Africa and Middle East, the production of crops cannot catch up with the increasing consumption. Therefore, net import increases.

2) North America, Latin America, Europe and Oceania will increase net export and respond to increasing net import.

3) On country basis like emerging countries or BRICs, in Europe, Russia will increase net export.

 On the other hand, EU will increase net import, China continually increases net export, and India keeps its exporter position in Asia.

  (5) As factors of demand increase in maize, soybeans, and soybean oil with policy leading of bio-fuel by The United State, Brazil, Argentina, EU, and so forth, the real prices of vegetable oil,

maize and soybeans seem to increase with high rate compared to rice, wheat or other grains.

  (6) The consumption of meats will increase due to the increasing annual consumption per capita. The price seems to rise by 32~46%in nominal price and by 7~14%in real price.

  

 

 

STATISTICS

 

        The following statistics are available from the Statistics Planning Division of the Statistics Department (Tel. 03-6744-2037)

  

  1. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy, 2009.(Statistics on type of Agricultural Management by Organized Management)
  2. Production and Shipment of Laquats Cherries and Mume Apricots, 2010
  3. Mutual relief decreased yield (Peaches, Wheat and Barley, 2010)
  4. Statistics on Lumber, November 2010.
  5. Statistics on Plywood, November 2010.
  6. Index Numbers of Commodity Prices in Agriculture, November 2010.
  7. Monthly Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, November 2010.
  8. Statistics on Meat Marketing, November 2010.
  9. Statistics on Milk and Milk Products, November 2010.
  10. Prices of Lumber, December 2010. (Preliminary)
  11. Statistics on Lumber, December 2010.
  12. Statistics on Lumber, December 2010.
  13. Statistics on Milk and Milk Products, December 2010.
  14. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy, 2009 (Statistics on Production Cost of Milk)
  15. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy, 2009 (Statistics on Production Cost of Calves, Fattening Castrated Young Cattle, Rearing Dairy Cattle, Fattening Dairy Cattle, Raising Hybrid (Crossbred) Cattle, Fattening Hybrid (Crossbred))
  16. Statistical Survey on Farm Management and Economy, 2009(Statistics on Production Cost of Fattening Pigs)  
  17. Forestry Output, 2009.
  18. Production of Feed Crops, 2010.
  19. Monthly Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, December 2010
  20. Report of Survey on Trend of Price and Sales of Perishable Food, October - December 2010.
  21. Planted Area and Production of Buckwheat, 2010.
  22. Planted Area and Production of Sugar Beets, 2010.
  23. Index Numbers of Commodity Prices in Agriculture, December 2010.
  24. Statistics on Meat Marketing, December 2010.
  25. Prices of Lumber, January 2011.(Preliminary)
  26. Planted Area, Production and Shipment of spring Planted Potatoes, 2010.
  27. Mutual relief decreased yield (Spring Planted Potatoes, Grapes, Japanese Pears, 2010)
  28. Survey on Marine Fishery Production, July - September 2010.
  29. Planted Area and Production of Sweet Potatoes, 2010.
  30. Fruiting Area, Production and Shipment of Peaches and Plums, 2010.
  31. Production Survey on Tea, 2010.
  32. Growing Area, Harvested Area and Production of Konnyakuimo, 2010.
  33. Statistics on Lumber, January 2011.
  34. Statistics on Plywood, January 2011.
  35. Statistics on Milk and Milk Products, January 2011.
  36. Index Numbers of Commodity Prices in Agriculture, January 2011.
  37. Monthly Statistics on Marketing of Fruits and Vegetables, January 2011.
  38. Statistics on Meat Marketing, January 2011.
  39. Gross Fisheries Output, 2009.
  40. Production of Soybeans, Azuki Red beans, Kidney beans and Peanuts 2010(Dried Beans).
  41. Prices of Lumber, February 2011.(Preliminary)

   

  Notes: 1. All the materials are in Japanese unless otherwise noted.

               2.  Inquiries may not be responded in any language except Japanese.

 

 

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大臣官房国際部国際政策課

International Policy Plannng Division
International Affairs Department
TEL:+81-3-3591-9681  FAX:+81-3-5512-7652

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